From the third phase of the resumption of work, the overall operating rate of Chongqing reached 88.2%, up 21.6 percentage points from the previous period, down 11.8 percentage points from the same period last year; Combined with the material side verification, we believe that:
1. The start of construction is good, but the actual progress needs to be improved;
2, capital is still the key, materials tend to cash settlement;
3, municipal infrastructure or is still the main keynote this year.
First, prices start to go up
This week, Chongqing’s top enterprises began to adjust the price, the price of gravel on board increased by 2 yuan/ton, the price adjustment is applicable to the purchase of sand in the Yangtze River basin. From the feedback of local traders, mainly a number of sand and stone enterprises in the Yangtze River basin began to adjust the price, including Hubei, Anhui and other places, the river freight now basically maintains a weak operation, in the short term, the cost of freight is controllable, for the supply side, the price increase still has sales advantages, and this year, many projects in Jiangsu and Shanghai are full power. Chongqing local high-standard sand and stone can fully meet the demand of projects in Jiangsu, Shanghai and other places, and it is expected that there will be a slight rebound in the first quarter.
Second, supply tends to be stable
According to the survey of sand and stone shipment this week, the head enterprise can guarantee 40,000 tons of sand and stone sales every day, including agents to pick up the goods and send to the lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and the local supply also accounts for a large proportion; From the production point of view, the manufacturers are basically prepared for the sales of this year. In the second week after the festival, many manufacturers have just resumed production, many equipment maintenance and debugging stage, and the output is difficult to achieve stability, but now basically all have been in stable production and sales.
Three, demand centralized municipal
The issuance and use of special bonds in the fourth quarter in Southwest China was satisfactory, and the return rate of labor service in municipal and infrastructure projects in some provinces was satisfactory, which promoted the construction of municipal and infrastructure projects to be greatly improved. The construction of high-speed rail projects was good, and the actual progress was also significantly improved. In terms of concrete shipment volume, shipment volume recovered to 60% of the normal level. The shipment was mainly for plant projects, and the housing construction end was in a very weak state. Municipal and infrastructure support, market confidence is gradually restored, from the current market grab orders, municipal projects become worthy of the “cake”.
To sum up, it is expected that the first quarter will still be due to funding and other problems, sand and stone materials will have a buffer period; From the beginning of the second quarter, whether it is the local market or the downstream Jiangsu, Shanghai and other places to comprehensively promote the project progress, then the sand and stone materials will start to recover steadily.
Post time: Feb-17-2023