1. Summary of steel spot and futures prices

On March 14, the domestic steel market price fell, Tangshan Qian ‘an Pu square billet resources factory tax cut 60 to 3340 yuan/ton. Early business feedback trading is not smooth, the market trading atmosphere is cold. In the afternoon, the spiral further fell, the market mentality became weaker, the frequency of low-cost resources, the downstream procurement sentiment was depressed, and the low transaction was poor.

On March 14, the main phase of the spiral fell sharply, the closing price of 3506 fell 2.96%, the DIF and DEA were both down, the RSI three-line indicator was at 13-29, close to the lower Bollinger band running below the track, entering the oversold area.

2.the daily price of varieties of steel

Rebar: On March 14, the average price of 20mm three-level seismic rebar in 31 major cities in the country was 3718 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The recent inventory continues to rise, while the business mentality is depressed, and it still takes time for spot demand to recover. Therefore, it is expected that the domestic construction steel market price will continue to be weak on the 15th.

Hot-rolled coil: On March 14, the average price of 4.75mm hot-rolled coil in 24 major cities across the country was 3846 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. 14 futures decline is large, and trading is poor, resulting in traders mentality price difference. From the fundamental point of view, the supply side, production is increasing, inventory is also increasing, and the demand side is weak due to the price trend, resulting in a strong wait-and-see mood. The pattern of strong supply and weak demand began to emerge. Most traders are losing money at the moment. Although the raw material side continues to weaken, steel mills are also losing money. In the case of both losses, most traders have a positive price sentiment. On the whole, it is expected that the price of hot rolled coil will fluctuate in the near future.

Cold-rolled coil: On March 14, the average price of 1.0mm cold coil in 24 major cities across the country was 4550 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. On the 14th, black futures fluctuated downward, market sentiment was again frustrated, and merchants have cut prices and shipped mainly, but the transaction is still more difficult. On the demand side, the current market wait-and-see sentiment is stronger, downstream demand has not substantially changed, and the pressure on merchants to ship is not reduced. In terms of inventory, Mysteel monitors the social inventory of cold-rolled coil in 26 cities of 1,549,400 tons, an increase of 0.2,800 tons week on week, and the current inventory accumulation is slowing down, but the overall inventory pressure in the market is still large. Overall, it is expected that the price of cold rolling on the 15th will weaken.

Medium and thick plate: On March 14, the average price of 20mm general plate in 24 major cities across the country was 3991 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. On the 14th, the market turnover was poor, the steel terminal demand continued to be weak, and the stock of the medium board increased slightly. The downstream resumption rate is lower than the same period last year, the pressure on merchants’ winter storage resources inventory is greater, and it is difficult to close a deal. On the whole, the market demand continues to be weak, and it is expected that the domestic medium and thick plate prices will fall slightly on the 15th.

3. Daily price of raw fuel

Iron ore: On March 14, the price of mainstream iron ore varieties imported from Shandong port fell by 5-10 compared with the previous working day. In terms of selling, traders’ enthusiasm for quotation is not high, some traders do not close the order due to cost reasons, so far, there are fewer spot market transactions; Shandong far month market transactions are relatively quiet, enquiries are weak; In terms of buying, steel mills are more cautious under the falling market and maintain on-demand procurement. At present, the mainstream of PB powder is 798-800; The mainstream of card powder is 900-905; The mainstream of super special powder is 650-655; PB block mainstream in 950-955. (Unit: Yuan/wet ton)

Scrap steel: On March 14, the average price of scrap steel in 45 major markets across the country was 2455 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Specifically, the 14th billet down 60 yuan/ton, the market expectations fell to the bottom, resulting in a wide range of price cuts in the base, is expected to continue to fall in the short-term scrap prices 50-80 yuan/ton. Market: The 14th base slightly down 40-60 yuan/ton, the arrival of the base in general, in the continuous decline in the market, most bases face losses, the market mentality is pessimistic. Under such a falling price, the base has chosen to lower the receiving price in advance, some bases have stopped, and it is expected that the short-term scrap price or shock downward.

Coke: On March 14, the market price of coke was temporarily stable. Tangshan moved ampu billet resources down 60, the implementation of 3350 including tax factory. The decline in billet prices, as well as the accumulation of finished material inventory, makes steel mill profits further contracted, and the market continues to be bearish on coke prices. Some coke enterprises have expanded the scope of limited production, and the enthusiasm for production is weak. The purchasing sentiment of raw coal also remains depressed, and the prices of main producing areas continue to fall, weakening the support role for coke prices, and coke prices are expected to be weak in the near future.

Fourth, steel market price forecast

Supply side: According to Mysteel research, this week, the five varieties of steel production of 8.49 million tons, an increase of 12,900 tons week on week. Among them, the output of rebar, wire rod, medium and thick plate decreases, while the output of hot rolled coil and cold rolled coil increases.

Inventory: This week, the total stock of five varieties of steel was 250.5597 million tons, an increase of 184,400 tons week on week. Among them, the stock of steel mills was 7,463,700 tons, an increase of 230,200 tons week on week; Social stocks were 17.5960 million tons, a decrease of 45,800 tons week on week.

Due to the poor efficiency of steel mills, increasing maintenance and production cuts, and starting heavy pollution weather emergency response in Tangshan and other places, recent steel production has fallen, and raw fuel prices continue to operate under pressure. The current market pessimism is strong, the recovery of downstream demand is limited, and businesses continue to reduce prices. At the same time, it is also necessary to see that steel mills in Guangdong, Fujian, Sichuan and Chongqing are controlling production and reducing production, the steel market is seeking a dynamic balance of supply and demand, and steel prices are in a bottom-finding state.